[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 January 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 148/102


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jan             07 Jan             08 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            155/109
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has declined to 400km/sec. The narrow 
north-polar extension trans-equatorial coronal hole visible in 
SOHO EIT284 imagery is now near the central meridian of the Sun. 
The high speed wind stream from this hole is expected 09-10 Jan. 
However, recurent patterns imply weak effects. Growth of on disk 
regions of interest has slowed. An increasing trend of solar 
activity is possible over coming days, due to possibilty of 
returning regions. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2222 3332
      Darwin               9   2222 2332
      Townsville           7   2221 2322
      Learmonth            8   1211 3332
      Canberra             9   1321 3321
      Hobart               9   1321 3321
      Casey(Ant)          15   3--3 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 JAN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              62   (Active)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13   4422 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Jan     6    Quiet 
08 Jan     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions expected next 3 days. A 
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to cause isolated 
active periods 09/10 Jan. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Jan   111

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jan   110    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
07 Jan   110    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
08 Jan   110    about 10% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 588 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   205000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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