[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 143/97


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jan             06 Jan             07 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             150/105            150/105
COMMENT: Several solar regions continue to show growth, in area 
and magnetic complexity. A trend of increasing solar activity 
is possible over coming days, with continued growth of on disk 
regins and possible return of previously active regions, around 
8 Jan. Elevated solar wind speed due to a coronal hole appears 
to have peaked at 600km/sec and is now expected to decline in 
the coming day. Bz has been near neutral over past 24 hours. 
A narrow north-polar extension trans-equatorial coronal hole 
is visible (SOHO EIT284 imagery) in the sun's eastern hemisphere. 
The high speed wind stream from this hole is expected in about 
4 to 5 days time. Recurrence implies weak effects. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 04 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   4423 3232
      Darwin              13   4323 3223
      Townsville          12   4322 3221
      Learmonth           18   5422 3232
      Canberra            12   3422 2233
      Hobart              13   3432 2232
      Casey(Ant)          22   5--4 3233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 JAN : 
      Townsville          12   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra           112   (Major storm)
      Hobart             132   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13   2222 3434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jan    12    Unsettled 
06 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Jan     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity has declined. 
A trend of decreasing activity is expected over coming days. 
Another  coronal hole high speed stream is expected in about 4-5 days 
time, however recurrence shows that activity associated with 
this hole is very mild. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jan    57

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jan   110    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
06 Jan   110    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
07 Jan   110    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Yesterdays depression more wide spread than expected 
with depressions observed at Darwin, Townsville and Learmonth. 
Normal level of ionospheric MUF support expected today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 532 km/sec  Density:    6.4 p/cc  Temp:   211000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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