[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 January 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **RED**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 138/92


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jan             05 Jan             06 Jan
Activity     Low                Low to moderate    Moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             145/99
COMMENT: Solar region 242 in the south-east quadrant of the solar 
disk is showing growth, and background xray flux has increased 
to C1.7. There appears to be a new region on the north-east limb 
and a region emerging to the south-east of 242, which has also 
shown growth overnight. If these regions continue to develop, 
M class activity may be possible in coming days. Also, after 
07/08 Jan a group of previously active regions are due to return 
to the solar disk. Solar wind speed has gradually increased to 
550km/sec over past 24 hours as we enter the anticipated coronal 
hole wind stream. Bz has been predominately northward, with some 
fluctuations southward at the start and end of the UT day.A non-earth 
directed CME was observed around 13UT in association with an 
west limb located erupting solar filament. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 03 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   3232 3444
      Darwin              14   3232 3434
      Townsville          14   3132 2443
      Learmonth           18   3222 3543
      Canberra            16   3232 3444
      Hobart              16   3232 3444
      Casey(Ant)          21   4--- 3434
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 JAN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   2222 3331     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jan    16    Active 
05 Jan    12    Unsettled 
06 Jan     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Active periods expected due to coronal hole. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected next 24 hours at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jan   100

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jan    55    depressed 15 to 20% (southern Aus/Nz)
04 Jan    80    near predicted monthly values (north Aus)
05 Jan   100    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
06 Jan   100    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 3 January 
and is current for interval 4 January only. Moderate depressions 
expected southern Aus/NZ region after local dawn this morning, 
following overnight coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity. 
MUFs are expected to recover as day progresses. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 367 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    56900 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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