[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 January 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 3 10:35:33 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is expected to increase over next two
days due to a coronal hole. Learmonth solar observatory reported
yesterday that a small filament in region 239 just west of the
centre of the solar disk showed some activity. Culgoora H-alpha
imagery showed this filament disappearing beginning around 0727UT
on 2 Jan. No CME could be easily seen in LASCO imagery.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 2212 2213
Darwin 5 2212 2214
Townsville 5 1112 2223
Learmonth 4 2112 2113
Canberra 5 1222 2213
Hobart 5 1222 2213
Casey(Ant) 12 3--3 31--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 JAN :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2233 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jan 13 Unsettled, chance isolated active periods.
04 Jan 13 Unsettled, chance isolated active periods.
05 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Very mild coronal hole effects on 03 and 04 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild coornal hole induced degradation possible at high
latitudes only 03-04 Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jan 126
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-45% during local day,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jan 100 about 10% above predicted monthly values
04 Jan 100 about 10% above predicted monthly values
05 Jan 100 about 10% above predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 43200 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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