[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 January 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jan             03 Jan             04 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             120/72
COMMENT: Small coronal hole at solar central meridian. Solar 
wind speed nominal. Bz mildly southward most of UT day. No significant 
regions on disk. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   1132 2123
      Darwin               5   2221 2123
      Townsville           6   1232 2113
      Learmonth            5   2122 2122
      Canberra             6   1132 2123
      Hobart               6   1132 2023
      Casey(Ant)          13   --43 21--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 JAN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              24   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   3323 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jan     7    Mostly quiet. 
03 Jan    13    Unsettled, chance isolated active periods. 
04 Jan    13    Unsettled, chance isolated active periods. 
COMMENT: Quiet levels expected today, very mild coronal hole 
effects on 03 and 04 Jan. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jan   117

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jan   100    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
03 Jan   100    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
04 Jan   100    about 10% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 455 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    92900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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