[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 December 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 115/66

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jan             02 Jan             03 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on 31 December. A few 
B-class flares were observed, the largest events being two 
B6.6 at 0205UT and at 0849UT. Most of these B-class flares 
were from region 234 (N18W09). The coronal hole effect has 
further declined. The solar wind speed gradually decreased 
from  480 km/s to  420 km/s (approx)  during the UT day 31 
December.  The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (Bz) showed mild fluctions between north and 
south  directions in the first half of the UT day. Bz seems 
to be setteling close to the normal value now. Solar activity 
is expected to remain low to very low during the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 31 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2221 1112
      Darwin               5   2222 1113
      Townsville           4   2221 1112
      Learmonth            7   2222 1130
      Canberra             5   2231 1012
      Hobart               6   2331 1012
      Casey(Ant)           6   3--- 210-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 DEC : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earth's magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             15   4333 3433     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jan     9    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible. 
02 Jan     7    Mostly quiet. 
03 Jan     7    Mostly quiet. 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic disturbance resulting from the 
high speed coronal hole wind stream has further declined. 
The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly at 
quiet level during the next one day with possibility of 
isolated unsettled periods. The geomagnetic activity is 
expected to further decline to 'quiet' level thereafter. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal on most locations during the next three days as the 
coronal hole induced geomagnetic disturbance subsides. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
31 Dec    92

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jan   105    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
02 Jan   107    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
03 Jan   107    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal in the Australian/NZ region during the next 3 days 
as the coronal hole solar wind stream induced geomagnetic 
activity is expected to die out during this period. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 506 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   113000 K  
Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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