[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 January 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M4/0F 07/2333UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan: 174/128


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jan             10 Jan             11 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            185/138            190/143
COMMENT: Solar region 251, located near the east limb, produced 
an M4.9 level flare at 07/2330. Several other C-class events 
occurred throughout the UT day, mainly from regions 244 and 242. 
A trans-equatorial north-polar coronal hole is in geoeffective 
longitude, and weak coronal hole wind stream effects may be 
experienced in the next few days. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2121 1113
      Darwin               5   2221 1123
      Townsville           4   2121 1113
      Learmonth            3   2111 1112
      Canberra             3   2121 0113
      Hobart               4   2221 1102
      Casey(Ant)           9   4--2 2112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 JAN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               7   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   2323 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Jan    15    Unsettled to Active 
11 Jan    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: A trans-equatorial north-polar coronal hole is now in 
geoeffective longitude, and mild geomagnetic disturbance due 
to a weak coronal hole wind stream may be experienced over the 
next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions expected 9-10 Jan at high 
latitudes. Otherwise generally good HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Jan   129

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jan   130    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
10 Jan   120    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
11 Jan   130    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected today. Mild degradation 
possible tomorrow at high latitudes due to anticipated weak coronal 
hole wind stream effects. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 376 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:    65500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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