[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 February 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 24 10:12:31 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar region 290 has become quiet. Coronal hole just
past centre of solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Feb : A K
Australian Region 10 3222 3323
Darwin 9 3221 3323
Townsville 9 2222 3323
Learmonth 10 3222 3322
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 10 2322 3322
Casey(Ant) 15 3-43 32--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 FEB :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 109 (Major storm)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 2323 3421
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Feb 12 Unsettled
26 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mild recurrent pattern around 25-26 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Feb 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values
25 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values
26 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 583 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 159000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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