[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 February 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Feb             26 Feb             27 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54
COMMENT:Small to moderate sized equatorial coronal hole on disk.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 24 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2112 2212
      Darwin               8   2122 3312
      Townsville           6   1112 232-
      Learmonth            7   2112 3311
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart               4   1112 2112
      Casey(Ant)          13   ---4 22--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              74   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   2322 4322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Feb    12    Unsettled 
26 Feb    14    Unsettled to Active 
27 Feb    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Mild recurrent pattern around 26 Feb. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
26 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
27 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Feb   109

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 
26 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 594 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:   160000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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