[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 February 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Feb             24 Feb             25 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60
COMMENT: Solar region 290 (now just past the solar central meridian) 
may produce a low level flare. A modest sized isolated equatorial 
coronal hole is visible near the centre of the solar disk in 
SOHO EIT 284 imagery. Elevated solar wind speed possible in 3 
days time. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2223 3322
      Darwin              10   3222 3323
      Townsville          12   2223 4323
      Learmonth            9   2222 3322
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              12   1233 4321
      Casey(Ant)          15   -4-3 3322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 FEB : 
      Townsville          16   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              95   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13   2332 2443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Feb    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions expected next two days. 27 day recurrent 
patterns suggest active periods possible 24 Feb. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Feb   109

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Improving HF conditions expected today. Chance for mild 
degradation 24 Feb southern Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 595 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   167000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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