[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 February 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN  MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Feb             23 Feb             24 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             125/78
COMMENT: Solar region 290 (N16E05) produced a minor flare. Background 
xray flux now at high B level. Isolated low level flares possible 
from 290. Solar wind speed is moderately elevated due to coronal 
hole, and is expected to decline today. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3333 2322
      Darwin               9   2332 1322
      Townsville          10   2233 2322
      Learmonth           10   3232 2322
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              10   2332 2322
      Casey(Ant)          23   4-54 3322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 FEB : 
      Townsville          18   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             104   (Major storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16   3344 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
23 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mildly disturbed conditions expected today to coronal 
hole high speed wind stream, then declining. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
today then improving. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Feb    97

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Feb   100    near predicted monthly values 
23 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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