[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 February 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Feb             22 Feb             23 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             125/78
COMMENT: Currently elevated solar wind speeds due to solar coronal 
hole, are expected to persist next few days. Chance for low level 
flare from solar region 290. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 20 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   2343 3333
      Darwin              13   2333 3333
      Townsville          15   2343 3333
      Learmonth           13   2333 3332
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              16   2443 3233
      Casey(Ant)          19   4--4 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              80   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   3332 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
22 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
23 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
22 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions expected at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Feb   117

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Feb    95    near predicted monthly values 
22 Feb    95    near predicted monthly values 
23 Feb    95    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation possible local night hours, and brief 
post dawn depressions possible southern Aus/NZ region next few 
days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed: 546 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    86500 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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