[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 February 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Feb             21 Feb             22 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             110/60
COMMENT: Mostly a quiet sun. Solar region 290 in the north-east 
solar quadrant may produce isolated low level flare activity 
over next few days. Currently elevated solar wind speeds due 
to solar coronal hole, are expected to persist next few days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   3322 3433
      Darwin              12   3222 3424
      Townsville          12   2222 3433
      Learmonth           13   3222 3433
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              11   3322 3323
      Casey(Ant)          21   44-4 3332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 FEB : 
      Townsville          23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            9   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             196   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             17   2434 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
21 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
22 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Mildly disturbed conditions expected due to coronal 
hole high speed wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
21 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
22 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions expected at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Feb    96

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Feb    95    near predicted monthly values 
21 Feb    95    near predicted monthly values 
22 Feb    95    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation possible local night hours, and brief 
post dawn depressions possible southern Aus/NZ region next few 
days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 661 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    34400 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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