[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 February 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Feb             20 Feb             21 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low and mostly confined to the 
west limb. A disappearing solar filament occurred in the north-west 
quadrant, first observed in LASCO EIT imagery at 0113UT. There 
was an associated CME observed some hours later in LASCO C3 imagery. 
The CME was north-west directed and appears unlikely to be geoeffective. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 18 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      26   3653 2323
      Darwin              26   3653 2323
      Townsville          26   3653 2323
      Learmonth           27   3653 3323
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              28   2654 3323
      Casey(Ant)          46   4763 22--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 FEB : 
      Townsville          34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth           54   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             161   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11   3223 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Feb    18    active 
20 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
21 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters became markedly elevated after 
00UT, with solar wind speed reaching 700 km/s at the ACE satellite 
platform. Geomagnetic conditions reached major storm levels between 
04-08UT at all stations in the IPS magnetometer network in response 
to solar wind elevation. After 04UT solar wind became stable 
in nature and declined steadily in velocity over the remainder 
of the UT day. This activity is probably from the high-speed 
coronal hole wind stream in association with a solar sector boundary 
crossing and may be transient in nature. The previous coronal 
hole wind stream signature is expected to resume, but possibly 
at reduced levels. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Regional depressions observed during local daylight 
hours at mid-latitudes, recovering overnight. Extensive periods 
of disturbance observed at high latitudes in association with 
coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity. Expect similar conditions 
today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Feb    96

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly below predicted monthly values with extended
      periods of disturbance.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Feb   100    Enhanced 10-20% Equatorial/N. Aus region. Near 
                predicted monthly values S. Aus/NZ/Antarctic 
                region. 
20 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Feb   120    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressions of 10-20% observed during local day at mid-latitudes 
in E.Aus region. Extended periods of sporadic E and spread-F 
conditions and local disturbance at high latitudes, in association 
with coronal-hole induced geomagnetic disturbance. Coronal hole 
wind stream induced disturbance is likely to continue today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 619 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   170000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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