[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 February 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 135/89


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Feb             06 Feb             07 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             145/99




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 04 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      27   3554 3343
      Darwin              20   4443 3243
      Townsville          23   3544 3334
      Learmonth           23   3453 3343
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              27   3554 3344
      Casey(Ant)          41   4665 3343
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           12   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              67   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             24                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             19   4343 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Feb    20    Unsettled to active with possible minor storm 
                periods. 
06 Feb    16    Unsettled to active 
07 Feb    12    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 4 February and 
is current for interval 4-6 February. Solar wind parameters suggest 
that the coronal hole high speed solar wind stream anticipated 
to arrive on 5 Feb arrived early on 4 February, resulting in 
active to minor storm periods. Active to minor storm levels are 
again possible for 5 February, after which conditions should 
begin returning to mostly quiet to unsettled levels. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Feb      Normal-poor    Poor-normal    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
06 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions were again significantly degraded for 
February 4 as the result of recent enhanced geomagnetic activity, 
with depressions greater than 30% observed. Mild depressions 
are expected at times for 5 February. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Feb    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 15-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15-30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly depressed 15-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15-30% to near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Feb    70    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
06 Feb    90    near predicted monthly values 
07 Feb   110    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 4 February 
and is current for interval 5 February only. HF conditions were 
again significantly degraded for February 4 as the result of 
recent enhanced geomagnetic activity, with depressions greater 
than 30% observed. Mild depressions are expected at times for 
5 February. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 480 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:   132000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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