[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 February 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:**RED** 
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 133/87


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Feb             05 Feb             06 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             145/99




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 03 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   3223 5334
      Darwin              14   3223 4334
      Townsville          16   3223 5234
      Learmonth           17   3223 5334
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              18   3233 5334
      Casey(Ant)          26   34-5 4343
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 FEB : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              59   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        29
           Planetary             45   5555 6544     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Feb    12    Unsettled 
05 Feb    20    Unsettled to active with possible minor storm 
                periods. 
06 Feb    20    Unsettled to active with possible minor storm 
                periods. 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters are slowly returning to nominal 
values following the arrival of the CME on 1 February, however, 
a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream is expected to impact 
the Earth on 5 February and produce mildly elevated geomagnetic 
activity levels. Unsettled to active levels with possible isolated 
minor storm periods are expected for 5-6 February. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Feb      Normal-poor    Poor-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Feb      Normal-fair    Poor-normal    Fair          
05 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
06 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
COMMENT: HF conditions have been significantly degraded following 
recent enhanced geomagnetic activity, with depressions greater 
than 30% observed. Significant depressions are again possible 
at times for 4 February. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Feb    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 15-30%
      at times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly depressed by 15-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly depressed by 15-30% and greater at times.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 15-30%.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Feb    60    Depressed 15-30% at times. 
05 Feb    90    near predicted monthly values 
06 Feb    70    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 500 km/sec  Density:    8.6 p/cc  Temp:    44400 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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