[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 February 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 140/94


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Feb             07 Feb             08 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             150/105
COMMENT: Solar region 276 in the south-east solar quadrant has 
potential for low level M flares. Solar wind speed currently 
elevated at 550km/sec due to coronal hole. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 05 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   3324 4322
      Darwin               9   2213 3322
      Townsville          12   2223 4322
      Learmonth           17   3214 5323
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              15   2324 4322
      Casey(Ant)          30   44-5 51--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 FEB : 
      Townsville          20   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             24   3455 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Feb    16    Unsettled to active 
07 Feb    12    Quiet to unsettled 
08 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 4 February and 
is current for interval 4-6 February. Active periods possible 
due to coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation possible due to coronal hole induced 
activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Feb    99

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Feb   100    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
07 Feb   100    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
08 Feb   100    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation possible local night hours southern 
region Australia. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 591 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   287000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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