[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 December 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW *   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Dec             19 Dec             20 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             135/89
COMMENT: A C8 level flare was produced from region 525 at 0300UT. 
Other minor B- to C-class activity also observed. Surging was 
observed in Culgoora H-Alpha imagery around 2030UT on the East 
equatorial limb, indicating a possible approaching active region 
behind the limb. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2222 2212
      Darwin               5   2211 2222
      Townsville           6   2222 2213
      Learmonth            5   2112 2211
      Culgoora             5   1222 2202
      Canberra             5   1222 2202
      Hobart               5   1222 2211
      Casey(Ant)           9   ---3 2221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 DEC : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            10   (Quiet)
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   3333 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active 
20 Dec    20    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 58 was issued on 15 December 
and is current for interval 19-20 December. As solar wind parameters 
decline towards normal levels, geomagnetic conditions were mostly 
at quiet levels over the UT day at low to mid latitudes. Isolated 
active to minor storm periods were observed in the first half 
of the UT day at high latitudes. A smaller equatorial coronal 
hole is expected to rotate into geoeffective position by Dec 
19, bringing a brief return to active conditions on Dec 19-20. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions today and for most of 18 Dec. 
Mid to high latitudes are expected to become moderately degraded 
around 19 Dec due to another coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Dec    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  50

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Dec    80    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
19 Dec    65    near predicted monthly values 
20 Dec    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 97 was issued on 15 December 
and is current for interval 19-20 December. MUFs are expected 
to be generally near predicted monthly values over coming days. 
Another mild to moderately disturbed interval from a coronal 
hole wind stream is expected 19 to 20 Dec. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+08 (high)
       X-ray background: B2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 600 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   122000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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