[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 December 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Dec             18 Dec             19 Dec
Activity     Low                Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             115/66
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined slowly over the UT day and 
is now at 500km/sec. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field again fluctuated mildly southward over the UT 
day. Solar wind speed is expected to decline further today. However, 
another coronal hole, a north polar extension transequatorial 
hole, is visible just to the east of solar central meridian in 
EIT 284 imagery. This Earth is expected to enter the wind stream 
from this hole around 19 Dec. Returning regions on the east limb 
of the Sun may bring a mild increase in solar activity (to moderate 
levels) in coming days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2223 2222
      Darwin               8   2223 2222
      Townsville           8   2223 2222
      Learmonth            8   2123 2321
      Culgoora             7   1123 2221
      Canberra             8   2223 2221
      Hobart               7   2123 2222
      Casey(Ant)          16   ---4 3232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 DEC : 
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           17   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            46   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            95   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              46   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             25   4445 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Dec    16    Unsettled to active 
19 Dec    20    Active to minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 58 was issued on 15 December 
and is current for interval 19-20 December. Field is expected 
to decline to quiet to unsettled levels. Another coronal hole 
wind stream is expected to induce active periods from 19 Dec. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Dec      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
19 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions today and for most of 18th. Mid 
to high latitudes are expected to become moderately degraded 
around 19 Dec due to another coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Dec    43

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  50

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Dec    55    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Dec    55    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Dec    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 97 was issued on 15 December 
and is current for interval 19-20 December. MUFs are expected 
to be generally near predicted monthly values over coming days. 
Another mild to moderately disturbed interval from a coronal 
hole wind stream is expected 18 to 20 Dec. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+08 (high)
       X-ray background: B2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 738 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:   237000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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