[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 16 09:22:24 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Activity Very low Low Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 98/45 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined slowly over the UT day and
is now at 650km/sec. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field again fluctuated mildly southward over the UT
day. Solar wind speed is expected to decline further today as
the Earth leaves the coronal hole high speed wind stream. However,
another coronal hole, a north polar extension transequatorial
hole, is visible in the Sun's eatsern solar hemisphere in SOHO
EIT 284 imagery. This Earth is expected to enter the wind stream
from this hole around 18/19 Dec. Also visible in EIT imagery
is the apparent return of old regions 507 and 508, which were
488 and 486 respectively on their first transit. These solar
regions were much less active on their previous transit and so
a mild increase to moderate solar activity may be experienced
in coming days. In particular old region 508 was M1 flare active
as it left the disk at latitude S19 on 02/03 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A K
Australian Region 17 4334 4222
Darwin 10 3223 3222
Townsville 19 4334 4232
Learmonth 22 4335 4322
Culgoora 14 3333 4222
Canberra 17 3334 4233
Hobart 17 4334 4223
Casey(Ant) 22 4--4 4333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 DEC :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora 54 (Unsettled)
Canberra 93 (Minor storm)
Hobart 110 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 24 4334 4544
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Dec 13 Unsettled to Active
17 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Dec 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 58 was issued on 15 December
and is current for interval 19-20 December. Isolated active periods
expected today then declining activity as the Earth leaves the
coronal hole high speed wind stream. Another coronal hole wind
stream is exopected to induce active periods from late 18 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: General trend of improving HF conditions are likely
at mid to high latitudes over the next day few days as the Earth
leaves the coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Dec 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Dec 45 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
17 Dec 55 Near predicted monthly values
18 Dec 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 97 was issued on 15 December
and is current for interval 19-20 December. Mild depressions
again possible after local dawn for southern Aus/NZ region. MUFs
are expected to generally return to near predicted monthly values
over coming days, as the Earth leaves the coronal hole high speed
wind stream. Another mild to moderately disturbed interval from
a coronal hole wind stream is expected late 18 to 20 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+08 (high)
X-ray background: B1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 743 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 291000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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