[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 December 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Dec             16 Dec             17 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              95/41
COMMENT: No significant solar activity over past 24 hours. Solar 
wind speed has begun to show a declining trend dropping from 850 
to 700km/sec over the UT day. The north-south comonent of the 
interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated mildly southward over 
the UT day. Solar wind speed is expected to decline further today 
as the Earth leaves the coronal hole high speed wind stream. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 14 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      18   3333 4343
      Darwin              10   2222 3332
      Townsville          15   2333 3343
      Learmonth           17   3233 4343
      Culgoora            13   2333 3333
      Canberra            20   3333 4443
      Hobart              21   3343 4442
      Casey(Ant)          27   ---4 4443
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 DEC : 
      Townsville          16   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           54   (Unsettled)
      Culgoora            78   (Active)
      Canberra           131   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             107   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             28   5444 5543     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Dec    16    Unsettled to active 
16 Dec    13    Unsettled 
17 Dec    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Active periods probable today then declining activity, 
as the Earth leaves the solar coronal hole high speed wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Dec      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: General trend of improving HF conditions are likely 
at mid to high latitudes over the next day few days as the Earth 
leaves the coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Dec    52

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  50

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Dec    40    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
16 Dec    55    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Dec    55    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions possible after local dawn for southern 
Aus/NZ region. MUFs are expected to generally return to near 
predicted monthly values over coming days, as the Earth leaves 
the coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+08 (high)
       X-ray background: A9.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 764 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:   275000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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