[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 December 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Dec             15 Dec             16 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: The sun has remained flare quiet over the past 24 hours. 
Solar wind remains elevated at around 700km/sec with the north-south 
comonent of the interplanetary magnetic field remaining mildly 
southward over the UT day. Recurrence suggests that solar wind 
speed should ease over coming days. Elecated solar wind speed
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 13 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   3333 4333
      Darwin              13   2223 4333
      Townsville          20   2333 5433
      Learmonth           21   3334 5333
      Culgoora            16   3333 4333
      Canberra            16   3333 4333
      Hobart              21   3444 4333
      Casey(Ant)          21   ---4 4333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 DEC : 
      Townsville          17   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           69   (Active)
      Culgoora            99   (Minor storm)
      Canberra           158   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             113   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             27                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             23   4443 4345     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Dec    20    active 
15 Dec    14    Unsettled to Active 
16 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Active conditions probable next two days, with a gradual 
decline in activity levels on day three, as the Earth is expected 
to leave the solar coronal hole high speed wind stream. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Dec      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: General trend of improving HF conditions are likely at 
mid to high latitudes over the next day few days as the Earth 
leaves the coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Dec    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values early in the UT day.
      Depressed 15% later in UT day. Blanketing sporadic
      E observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  50

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Dec    45    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
15 Dec    50    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
16 Dec    55    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions possible after local dawn for southern 
Aus/NZ region. MUFs are expected to generally return to near 
predicted monthly values over coming days, as the Earth leaves 
the coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+08 (high)
       X-ray background: A7.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 755 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   275000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.