[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 13 10:25:41 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: * YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: The sun has remained flare quiet over the past 24 hours.
There has been no development of any of the visible active regions.
Coronal hole wind stream effects are continuing, but should decline
over the next few days as the present equatorial coronal hole
rotates out of geoeffective location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A K
Australian Region 16 3333 4333
Darwin 14 3432 3323
Townsville 16 3333 4333
Learmonth 16 3333 4333
Culgoora 12 2333 3233
Canberra 16 3333 4333
Hobart 17 3343 4233
Casey(Ant) 23 ---- 4344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 DEC :
Townsville 18 (Quiet)
Learmonth 41 (Unsettled)
Culgoora 89 (Minor storm)
Canberra 149 (Severe storm)
Hobart 157 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 40 5565 4534
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Dec 25 active
14 Dec 20 active
15 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Although solar wind parameters reamin elevated (wind
speed ~750 km/s, Bz mildly southward), there has been a general
decline in geomagnetic activity to mostly active conditions at
low to mid latitudes. Mostly active to minor storm conditions
were observed at high latitudes. Similar conditions are expected
today, with a gradual decline in activity levels on days two
and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Fair Fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Fair Fair Fair-Poor
14 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions are likely at mid to high latitudes
over the next day due to geomagnetic disturbance resulting from
a large geoeffective coronal hole. Degradations also expected
around local dawn at low latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Dec 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night and after
local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed 10-20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day,
with extended periods of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Dec 25 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Dec 35 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
15 Dec 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 96 was issued on 11 December
and is current for interval 12-13 December. Depressions observed
in all Aus/NZ regions overnight and around local dawn. Persistent
and occasionally intense sporadic-E layer observed in Equatorial/Aus
regions. Depressions observed today around local dawn at low
to mid latitudes are showing signs of recovery at report issue.
High latitudes can expect extended periods of disturbance for
the next few days. Coronal hole wind stream efefcts are expected
to gradually decline over this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+08 (high)
X-ray background: A7.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 810 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 317000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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