[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 12 10:46:46 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: * YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: The sun has remained flare quiet over the past 24 hours.
New region 521 appears to be the return of old region 501, which
produced a number of M-class flares on the last rotation. Some
limb brightening has been observed in LASCO EIT-284 imagery on
the east limb, indicating a possible increase in flare activity
in the next few days. A large equatorial coronal hole is currently
in geoeffective position. High speed coronal hole wind stream
effects are expected to continue near present levels today, then
gradually decline over the following few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Active to minor storm
Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A K
Australian Region 21 4344 4333
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 21 4344 4333
Learmonth 21 3344 4433
Culgoora 18 3343 4333
Canberra 21 3444 4333
Hobart 24 3454 3433
Casey(Ant) 48 5--- ---2
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 DEC :
Townsville 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 60 (Unsettled)
Culgoora 112 (Major storm)
Canberra 160 (Severe storm)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 42 5456 5554
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Dec 35 Active to Minor storm
13 Dec 25 active
14 Dec 20 active
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has remained elevated at 800 - 850
km/s over the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field has fluctuated +/-5nT over this period, with a
southward bias over most of the UT day, tending neutral in the
latter part of the day. Mostly active geomagnetic conditions
were observed at low to mid latitudes, and active to minor storm
with isolated major storm periods at high latitudes. Expect similar
conditions today, as the elevated solar wind stream is expected
to persist for the next 24 hours, then a gradual decline in solar
wind parameters and geomagnetic activity over the following few
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Poor-fair Fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Fair Fair Fair-Poor
13 Dec Fair Fair Fair-Poor
14 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions are likely at mid to high latitudes
over the next two days due to geomagnetic disturbance resulting
from a large geoeffective coronal hole. Degradations also possible
around local dawn at low latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Dec 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Dec 20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 25 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Dec 35 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 96 was issued on 11 December
and is current for interval 12-13 December. Post-dawn depressions
observed yesterday continued throughout the UT day at most locations.
Depressions observed again today around local dawn in mid to
southern Aus region, but showing signs of recovery at report
issue. Coronal hole wind stream effects are likely to persist
today, then gradually ease over the following few days. High
latitudes can expect extended periods of disturbance for the
next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: A8.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 781 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 321000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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