[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 11 10:48:36 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: * YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 95/41
COMMENT: The sun has remained flare quiet over the past 24 hours.
New region 521 appears to be the return of old region 501, which
produced a number of M-class flares on the last rotation. Some
limb brightening has been observed in LASCO EIT-284 imagery on
the east limb, indicating a possible increase in flare activity
in the next few days. A large equatorial coronal hole is currently
in geoeffective position and high speed coronal hole wind stream
effects are expected to continue near present levels for the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A K
Australian Region 28 4344 4544
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 23 3245 4433
Learmonth 29 3344 5544
Culgoora 23 3344 4444
Canberra 31 4344 4554
Hobart 31 4344 4554
Casey(Ant) 33 5-54 4-34
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 DEC :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora 73 (Active)
Canberra 125 (Severe storm)
Hobart 106 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 31 3455 5544
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Dec 35 Active to Minor storm
12 Dec 35 Active to Minor storm
13 Dec 30 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has remained steady at around 800 km/s
over the latter part of the UT day. Interplanetary magnetic field
Bz has maintained a mildly southward bias over most of the UT
day. These elevated solar wind parameters, due to a large equatorial
coronal hole, have caused an extended period of active to minor
storm geomagnetic conditions. Recurrence suggests that an extended
period of active conditions with minor storm periods can be expected
until 15 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Fair Normal-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Fair Fair Fair-Poor
12 Dec Fair Fair Fair-Poor
13 Dec Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Degraded conditions are likely at mid to high latitudes
over the next few days due to geomagnetic disturbance resulting
from a large geoeffective coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Dec 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 10-20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Dec 20 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
12 Dec 35 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 40 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 95 was issued on 8 December
and is current for interval 9-11 December. Widespread depressions
observed after local dawn today. Occasionally strong sporadic-E
conditions observed at all latitudes over the past 24 hours.
Spread-F conditions at Antarctic stations. Expect continuing
periods of disturbance for the next three days due to persisting
coronal hole wind stream effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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