[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 10 10:15:06 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: US ACE solar wind speed data continued to rise from
600 to 700km/sec over the UT day. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field remained mildly southward over
the UT day. Elevated solar wind speeds and southward IMF conditions
expected to persist over next 5-7 days. There may be some indication
that old region 501 (old 484) is returning to the solar disk,
although it does not appear very bright this time around in US
SOHO EIT 284 imagery. Some structure also visible near solar
equator on east limb in H-alpha imagery. In addition some brightening
can be seen just south of the solar equator on the eastern solar
limb. Solar flare activity may possibly show an mild increase in coming
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A K
Australian Region 20 3344 4334
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 17 2344 3334
Learmonth 26 3345 5333
Culgoora 16 2244 3334
Canberra 21 3354 3334
Hobart 26 3355 4334
Casey(Ant) - ---- ----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 DEC :
Townsville 12 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Culgoora 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 42 (Unsettled)
Hobart 61 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 39 2556 6544
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Dec 25 Active to minor storm
11 Dec 25 Active to minor storm
12 Dec 25 Active to minor storm
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests that an extended period of active
conditions with minor storm periods can be expected until 15
Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
11 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
12 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
COMMENT: Degraded conditions are likely at mid to high latitudes
over coming days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Dec 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Dec 30 depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
11 Dec 35 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Dec 35 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 95 was issued on 8 December
and is current for interval 9-11 December. Southern Aus/NZ region
MUFs expected to be 20% depressed again this morning. Northern
Aus region MUFs expected mildly depressed by 10 to 15% early
in the UT day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 543 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 224000 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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