[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 19 10:12:05 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Dec 20 Dec 21 Dec
Activity Low Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Some impulsive B- to C-class flare activity was observed
today, with a C8 level flare from region 525 being the largest.
Region 525 and newly numbered region 528 have the potential for
M-class flare activity. An equatorial coronal hole on the visible
disk has developed an extension to the north solar pole. This
feature is now just past central solar meridian, and the Earth
is expected to enter it's high speed wind stream late Dec 19
to early Dec 20.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 2211 1101
Darwin 4 2211 1111
Townsville 3 2111 1112
Learmonth 2 1111 0100
Culgoora 2 1110 1101
Canberra 2 1210 1102
Hobart 3 1211 1101
Casey(Ant) 7 3-32 1101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 DEC :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 10 2333 3331
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Dec 12 Quiet to unsettled
20 Dec 20 Active
21 Dec 18 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 58 was issued on 15 December
and is current for interval 19-20 December. Expect mostly quiet
geomagnetic conditions today. An equatorial coronal hole with
north polar extension is now just past central solar meridian.
An increase in geomagnetic activity due to high speed wind stream
effects is anticipated on 20-21 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
21 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Expect generally good HF conditions today. Mid to high
latitudes are expected to become moderately degraded after 19
Dec due to another coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Dec 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Dec 80 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
20 Dec 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
21 Dec 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 97 was issued on 15 December
and is current for interval 19-20 December. Generally enhanced
HF propagation conditions observed, especially during local night
hours. Persistent and intense sporadic-E conditions observed
at times in S Aus/NZ regions. Possible degradations may occur
at high latitudes late in the UT day or early on 20 Dec due to
anticipated geomagnetic disturbance from a high speed coronal
hole wind stream. Disturbances will become more widespread later
as solar wind parameters intensify.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+09 (high)
X-ray background: B3.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 473 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 69700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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