[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 2 10:27:13 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. A few low C-class
flares were observed - most from region 508(S19W85). The solar
wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 500 km/s to 410 km/s
(approx) during the UTday. As anticipated the effect of the
transequatorial coronal hole seems to be declining now. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) remained mostly mildly negative until 0800UT (approx).
Bz then stayed slightly positive until 1400UT (approx) and
showed minor fluctuations around the normal value until 2000UT.
Bz is staying slightly southward for the last 3 hours at the
time of this report. The solar activity is expected to remain
low for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet to unsettled
with isolated active periods recorded at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 2222 2213
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 5 1222 1214
Learmonth 5 2122 2212
Culgoora 5 2221 1213
Canberra 7 2232 1213
Hobart 8 2332 1213
Casey(Ant) 11 3--- 3223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 DEC :
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 2222 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Dec 8 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
03 Dec 7 Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible.
04 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The effect of the high speed transequatorial
coronal hole induced solar wind stream seems to be
declining now. The geomagnetic activity is expected to
remain mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on most
locations on 02 December. The geomagnetic activity is
expected to show a further gradual decline thereafter
and come down to mostly quiet levels by 03 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on low and mid latitudes during the next three days. Minor
depressions and degradations are possible at high latitudes
on 02 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Dec 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Dec 100 near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 10%.
03 Dec 105 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Dec 110 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Australian/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B5.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 483 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 147000 K
Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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