[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 1 10:31:57 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. A few C-class
flares were observed - the largest being a C4.6 at 0011UT.
The solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from 400
km/s to 500 km/s (approx) by 0900UT and it remained nearly
steady between 450 and 500 km/s (approx) during the rest
of the UTday. This increase in the solar wind speed may be
attributed to the effect of the transequatorial coronal hole
that is in a geoeffective position now. The effect of this
coronal hole is expected to continue on 01 December and
start declining on 02 December. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained moslty
moderately positive during the first half of the UT day
and mildly negative during the rest of the day. Region 507,
which has been the largest region on the disk for the last
several days, has started to rotate behind the limb. The
complete passage of this region may be expected to reduce
the possibility of major solar activity in the coming few
days as no other major region is expected to appear on the
solar disk during the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 12 3322 3333
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 12 2332 3333
Learmonth 11 2322 3334
Culgoora 11 3222 3334
Canberra 12 3322 3333
Hobart 12 3322 3333
Casey(Ant) 18 4--- 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 9 2223 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 13 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Active periods possible.
02 Dec 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible on high latitudes.
03 Dec 8 Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: The effect of the high speed transequatorial coronal
hole induced solar wind stream seems to have enhanced the
geomagnetic activity to unsettled levels with brief active
periods recorded on some high latitude locations. This effect
is expected to continue on 01 December and start declining
possibly on 02 December. The geomagnetic activity is expected
to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled levels with possibility
of active periods on 01 December and possibly on 02 December.
The geomagnetic activity is expected to show a gradual decline
thereafter and come down to mostly quiet levels by 03 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on low and mid latitudes during the next two days. Minor to
mild depressions and degradations are possible at high
latitudes during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
brief periods of minor depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec 105 near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 5%.
02 Dec 108 near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 10%.
03 Dec 110 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Australian/NZ regions during the next three days.
However, minor depressions and degradations are possible at
times in Southern Aus/NZ regions on 01 December due to an
expected continued slight enhancement in the geomagnetic
activity on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B6.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 67700 K
Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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