[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 August 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 26 09:46:51 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low today. Region 442(S13E30)
produced a long duration C3.6 flare, which started at 0230UT,
peaked at 0259UT and ended at 0335UT. This flare was followed
by a partial halo CME from the South-East limb. The solar wind
stream is showing further signs of weekening. The solar wind
speed first increased from 600 km/s to 675 km/s (approx.)
during the first five hours of the day but then showed a
gradual decrease to approximately 575 km/s by the late hours
of the day. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field fluctuated between +5nT and -5nT (approx.)
throughout the UT day- mostly remaining southwards. Solar
region 436 is still the largest region on the disk. Region
436 has potential for C-class flare and also has a slight
chance of producing isolated low M-class flare. The solar
wind stream is expected to further slow down during the next
two days as the coronal hole effect subsides further. There
is some possibility of slight strengthening of the solar wind
stream on the third day due to a possible glancing effect of
the CME associated with today's C3 flare.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Mostly quiet to
active with short isolated periods of minor storm.
Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A K
Australian Region 15 3443 2222
Darwin 18 -453 2222
Townsville 13 2443 2222
Learmonth 11 3332 2322
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 16 3444 2222
Casey(Ant) 16 4433 22--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 94 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 24 3455 4343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Aug 17 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
27 Aug 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
28 Aug 14 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity has started to decline
as the coronal hole effect is continuing to subside. The
geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually decline
further during the next two days as the solar wind stream
weekens further. A possible glancing effect of the partial
halo CME observed on 25 August has some possibility of
slightly increasing the geomagnetic activity to 'mostly
unsettled' level on the third day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions may be
observed at high latitudes during the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Aug 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values with relatively long
periods of deressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 60
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Aug 60 about 5% above predicted monthly values
27 Aug 64 about 10% above predicted monthly values
28 Aug 62 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
during the next two days accross Australia/NZ. Minor
depressions in MUFs and slight degradation in HF conditions
may be observed on the third day in Southern Australian/NZ
regions due to some chance of slight enhancement in the
geomagnetic activity on the third day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+08 (high)
X-ray background: B2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 609 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 187000 K
Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list