[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 August 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 27 09:42:01 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low today. Region 436(N08W51)
produced the largest event of the day- a C4.6 flare at 1559UT.
The solar wind stream is showing further signs of weekening.
The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 600 km/s to 500
km/s (approx.) during the UT day. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field remained between +5nT and
-5nT (approx.) during the UT day- mostly staying northwards
during the first half of the day and mostly southwards during
the second half. Solar region 436 is still the largest region
on the disk. This region is currently declining. The solar wind
stream is expected to further slow down tomorrow as the coronal
hole effect subsides further. There is some possibility of
slight strengthening of the solar wind stream on the second day
due to a possible glancing effect of the CME associated with
yesterday's C3 flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Mostly quiet to
unsettled with isolated active periods.
Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A K
Australian Region 10 3223 2323
Darwin 14 -234 2333
Townsville 8 2113 2323
Learmonth 8 3112 2323
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 8 2213 2323
Casey(Ant) 10 3--2 2322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 56 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21 4453 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Aug 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
28 Aug 14 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
29 Aug 12 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity has shown further signs
of decline as the coronal hole effect is continuing to subside.
The geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually decline
further tomorrow as the solar wind stream weekens further.
A possible glancing effect of the partial halo CME observed
on 25 August has some possibility of slightly increasing the
geomagnetic activity to 'mostly unsettled with some possibility
of isolsated active periods' on the second day. The geomagnetic
activity is expected to decline thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions may be
observed at high latitudes during the next two days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Aug 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values with periods
of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 60
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Aug 67 about 10% above predicted monthly values
28 Aug 63 Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug 67 about 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on 27 August accross Australia/NZ. Minor depressions in MUFs
and slight degradation in HF conditions may be observed on
28 August in Southern Australian/NZ regions due to some
chance of slight enhancement in the geomagnetic activity on
this day. The HF conditions are expected to return to normal
after that.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 624 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 204000 K
Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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