[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 August 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 25 09:46:12 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. Region
436(N08W26) produced a C1.2 flare at 0417UT. The solar wind
stream is showing signs of weekening. The solar wind speed
decreased from 750 km/s to 575 km/s (approx.) during the UT
day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field fluctuated between +5nT and -5nT (approx.) throughout
the UT day- mostly remaining southwards. Solar region 436 is
still the largest region on the disk. Region 436 has potential
for C-class flare and also has a slight chance of producing
isolated low M-class flare. The solar wind stream is expected
to further slow down during the next three days as the coronal
hole effect subsides.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet to active with
short isolated periods of minor storm.
Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A K
Australian Region 19 3344 3243
Darwin 21 4-44 3332
Townsville 11 2233 3233
Learmonth 12 2333 3233
Canberra 20 225- ----
Hobart 18 2244 4243
Casey(Ant) 24 3444 3353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 AUG :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra NA
Hobart 119 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 44 4575 5344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Aug 20 Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible.
26 Aug 17 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
27 Aug 14 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity has started to decline as
the coronal hole effect is subsiding now. The geomagnetic
activity is expected to gradually decline further during
the next three days as the solar wind stream weekens further.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Fair
26 Aug Normal Normal Fair
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions may be
observed at high latitudes during the next two days. Minor
degradations are also possible at mid latitudes during this
period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Aug 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values with relatively
long periods of depressions and degradations
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 60
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Aug 59 Near predicted monthly values
26 Aug 62 about 5% above predicted monthly values
27 Aug 65 about 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUFs are possible in Southern
Australian/NZ regions during the next two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+08 (high)
X-ray background: B2.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 750 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 285000 K
Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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