[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 August 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug: 120/72

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Aug             25 Aug             26 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             122/75             125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. Region 
441(N11E19) produced a B6.9 flare at 0016UT. The solar 
wind stream seems to be showing slight weekening. The 
solar wind speed remained between 725 and 775 km/s (approx.) 
during the UT day. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +5nT and 
-5nT (approx.) throughout the UT day. Solar region 436 
is still the largest region on the disk. Region 436 has 
potential for C-class flare and also has a slight chance 
of producing isolated low M-class flare. Region 441 also 
has potential to produce C-class flare. The solar wind 
stream is expected to remain strong due to the coronal hole 
effect for one to two more days (approx.). 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 23 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      34   4455 5433
      Darwin              41   5564 5433
      Townsville          30   3455 5332
      Learmonth           32   3355 5523
      Canberra            35   3465 5332
      Hobart              35   3465 5333
      Casey(Ant)          30   4544 4-43
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 AUG : 
      Townsville          16   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           55   (Unsettled)
      Canberra           163   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             176   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        45
           Planetary             45                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             43   5555 6543     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Aug    25    Mostly active. Isolated minor storm possible. 
25 Aug    22    Mostly active. Slight chance of short isolated 
                minor storm periods. 
26 Aug    18    Mostly unsettled to active. 
COMMENT: The rise in geomagnetic activity due to the 
coronal hole effect continued today. The geomagnetic 
activity is expected to remain enhanced to 'mostly 
active with possibility of isolated periods of minor 
storm' during the next two days and decline to 'mostly 
unsettled to active' level on the third day. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair          
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair          
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions may be observed at mid and 
high latitudes during the next two days. Minor degradations 
are also possible at low latitudes during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
23 Aug    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with relatively long
      periods of depressions and degradations. 


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  60

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Aug    52    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%. 
25 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values 
26 Aug    62    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions are possible in Southern 
Australian/NZ regions during the next two days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 753 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   316000 K  
Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.