[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 August 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:GREEN   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/1N    0759UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
 M2/2F    1006UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Aug             21 Aug             22 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds have declined following the CME impact 
on 17 August. Solar regions 431 and 436 have the chance of isolated 
M-class flare activity. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 19 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   3343 2324
      Darwin              17   3-44 3323
      Townsville          13   2343 2325
      Learmonth           15   4243 2324
      Canberra            10   3233 2225
      Hobart               8   3232 1224
      Casey(Ant)          17   3443 23--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart             102   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        46
           Planetary             86   5687 6655     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Aug    12    Quiet to unsettled with the chance of active 
                periods. 
21 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 
22 Aug    20    Unsettled to active with the chance of minor 
                storm periods. 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity continues to decline following 
the storm activity observed on 18 August, with mostly unsettled 
levels expected over the next couple of days. CME activity associated 
with flares observed during 19 August does not appear to be Earthward 
directed. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase mildly 
for 22 August due to an anticipated high speed coronal hole solar 
wind stream and the possible glancing blow from the recent CME 
activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Aug      Normal-fair    Fair-poor      Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Fair-normal    Poor-normal    Poor-normal   
21 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Significant depressions have been observed for all latitudes 
during 19 August as the result of recent geomagnetic activity. 
Mild depressions are again possible for 20 August with HF conditions 
slowly returning to normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Aug    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      otherwise depressed by 10-20% at times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10-20% to near predicted monthly values. 


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  60

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Aug    55    depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
21 Aug    65    near predicted monthly values 
22 Aug    75    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 469 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    33300 K  Bz:  -6 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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