[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 August 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 21 09:56:29 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. No flare
was observed. The solar wind speed remained between 420 and
460 km/s (approx.) during the UT day. The north- south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field showed minor
to mild fluctuations during the UT day. Solar regions
431(S10W84) and 436(N07E29) may produce C-class flares. A
glancing effect of a partial halo CME from the north-east
limb, associated with the M2.7 flare observed at 1006UT/19
August, may be observed on 22 August. The solar wind stream
may also be strengthened by a coronal hole effect that is
expected to start showing up from late hours on 21 August
or on 22 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A K
Australian Region 11 2332 2333
Darwin 14 -342 233-
Townsville 7 2221 2323
Learmonth 8 1221 2333
Canberra 8 1222 2333
Hobart 8 1222 2333
Casey(Ant) 16 3442 23--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 21 6433 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Aug 10 Quiet to unsettled
22 Aug 20 Mostly unsettled to active.
23 Aug 24 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase mildly
for 22 August due to an anticipated high speed coronal hole
solar wind stream and the possible glancing blow from the
recent CME activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
23 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on 21 August UT day. Minor to mild degradations and depressions
may be observed on high latitudes on 22 and 23 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Aug 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 55% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values during early
hours of the UT day followed by periods
of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 60
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Aug 65 about 10% above predicted monthly values
22 Aug 60 about 5% above predicted monthly values
23 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to remain mostly normal on 21
August. Minor to mild depressions are possible in Southern
Australian/NZ reagions on 22 and 23 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 56000 K Bz: 8 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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