[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 August 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 19 10:03:29 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Active to Severe Storm Levels
Estimated Indices 18 Aug : A K
Australian Region 46 4456 5555
Darwin 43 4456 5545
Townsville 53 4357 5555
Learmonth 56 5357 5555
Canberra 61 4467 5-55
Hobart 46 446- 5-54
Casey(Ant) 27 5445 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 AUG :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 71 (Active)
Hobart 116 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 62
Planetary 82
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15 2101 4445
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Aug 18 Unsettled to active with the chance of minor
storm periods.
20 Aug 12 Unsettled
21 Aug 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The IMF has been predominantly southward during the
past past 24 hours with values of -15nT sustained for several
hours. This has resulted in significant levels of geomagnetic
activity with severe storm levels being observed. The IMF appears
to be returning to nominal values which should result in abating
geomagnetic activity levels. Mostly unsettled to active levels
are expected for 19 August with minor storm periods possible
at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal-fair Poor-normal Poor-fair
20 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Significant depressions have been observed for mid-high
latitudes during 18 August as the result of significant geomagnetic
activity. Significant depressions are again possible for 19 August,
however, HF conditions should be slowly returning to normal.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Aug 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced greater than 25%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15-30%.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 60
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Aug 60 Depressed 15-30% at times for southern regions,
with northern regions mostly near predicted monthly
values.
20 Aug 65 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
21 Aug 75 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significant depressions have been observed for southern
regions during 18 August as the result of significant geomagnetic
activity. Significant depressions are again possible for 19 August,
however, HF conditions should be slowly returning to normal.
Due to northern regions being significantly enhanced the observed
Australian T-index does not reflect the significant depressions
observed during 18 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B3.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 471 km/sec Density: 10.6 p/cc Temp: 25900 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list