[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 August 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Aug             19 Aug             20 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             125/78
COMMENT: A shock in the solar wind was observed at 1342UT and 
was most likely the impact of the faint halo CME observed at 
approximately 21UT on 14 August. It is unclear as to the solar 
origin of this CME. Isolated low level M class activity is possible 
as region 431 decays and also from new region 436. 
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 1342UT on 
17 Aug. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 17 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   1111 3344
      Darwin              11   1111 4344
      Townsville          11   1110 4344
      Learmonth            9   0000 -445
      Canberra            10   1000 4344
      Hobart               8   0000 3344
      Casey(Ant)           9   2222 2334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 AUG : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           56   (Unsettled)
      Canberra           162   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             139   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   3323 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Aug    20    Unsettled to active with the chance for isolated 
                minor storm periods. 
19 Aug    15    Unsettled to active 
20 Aug    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: The shock observed in the solar wind at 1342UT has been 
followed by active and isolated minor storm periods. Further 
active and isolated minor storm periods are again possible for 
18 August. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at times for mid-high 
latitudes for 18 August as the result of mildly elevated geomagnetic 
activity levels. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Aug    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  60

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Aug    65    Depressed 10-20% at times for southern regions, 
                otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values. 
19 Aug    75    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
20 Aug    80    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at times for southern 
regions for 18 August as the result of mildly elevated geomagnetic 
activity levels. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B4.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 549 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    51700 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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