[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 August 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 127/80


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Aug             18 Aug             19 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             125/78
COMMENT: Solar wind speed peaked at around 620 km/sec early in 
the UT day then declined to 480km/sec by end of the UT day. The 
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field again 
remained northward, a state that reduces geoeffectivness of the 
solar wind conditions. Solar region 431 only produced a low level 
C flare and is showing definite decline. However, three other 
low level C class events were not optically correlated. One has 
been reported to have been from behind the west limb. The other 
two may have originated from the return of old region 422 (visible 
in US SEC SXI and SOHO EIT imagery) to the northeast limb at 
latitude 15N. This region wasnt that flare productive, producing 
an isolated M2 class event on its previous rotation. The presumed 
leader spot of this returning region is just visible in US SOHO 
MDI imagery but is too near the limb of spot analysis. Isolated 
low level M class activity is possible as 431 breaks up, and 
also from this new region, which is yet to be numbered (presumably 
436). 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3322 2212
      Darwin               8   3322 2212
      Townsville           7   3312 2112
      Learmonth            7   2213 2211
      Canberra             7   2312 2212
      Hobart               8   2313 2212
      Casey(Ant)          10   3332 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 AUG : 
      Townsville          18   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           50   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             168   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             14   3232 3443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Aug    12    Unsettled 
18 Aug     5    Quiet 
19 Aug     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods not observed. Geomagnetic field 
now expected to become quiet due to declining solar wind speeds 
and northward IMF. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected. Enhanced MUFs likely in 
some regions, particularly mid to low latitudes. Isolated short 
wave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits possible. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Aug    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  60

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Aug    90    15 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
18 Aug    90    15 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
19 Aug    90    15 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed in region. Continued good HF 
conditions expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B6.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 582 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:   153000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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