[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 August 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 13 09:00:33 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is elevated due to a coronal hole and
fluctuated between 650 and 700km/sec over the UT day. Solar wind
conditions are expected to show a declining trend by the end
of today. The north-south component, (Bz), of the interplanetary
magnetic field, (IMF), was on average mostly northward by about
5nT (some southward fluctuations of up to 10nT were observed
early in the uT day, but then settled to a northward orientation).
Northward IMF conditions reduce geoeffectiveness of disturbances.
Solar regions 431 and 424 produced some C class activity over
past 24 hours. Region 424 will rotate off-disk in a couple of
days. Region 431 is in the south-east solar quadrant, and appears
stable.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 12 Aug : A K
Australian Region 20 4434 4322
Darwin 15 3333 432-
Townsville 20 4434 4322
Learmonth 19 3434 4322
Canberra 22 4444 4322
Hobart 17 3334 4322
Casey(Ant) 24 4544 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 AUG :
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 67 (Active)
Canberra 139 (Severe storm)
Hobart 144 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 2222 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Aug 18 active
14 Aug 14 Unsettled to Active
15 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 36 was issued on 9 August and
is current for interval 11-13 August. Forecast activity levels
from anticipated coronal hole wind stream have not been reached,
presumably due to northward IMF conditions. Forecast activity
levels for today have therefore been reduced.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
14 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Normal-Fair
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions today, then improving.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Aug 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 60
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Aug 80 about 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Aug 70 near predicted monthly values
15 Aug 70 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Regonal MUFs have remained near normal over past 24
hours, and are now expected to remain as such for the rest of
the period. Degradations in HF cimmunications quality may be
experienced during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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