[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 August 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Aug             13 Aug             14 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             120/72
COMMENT: Solar wind speed may have reached a minimum of around 
500km/sec in the middle of the UT day and may be showing a gradual 
increase toward end of UT day. This may be the entry into the 
anticpated coronal hole wind stream. This coronal hole is visible 
in SEC SXI and SOHO EIT284 imagery as a broad diagonal hole across 
the solar disk. If so, this increasing trend in wind speed is 
expected to continue, with elevated solar wind speed conditions 
expected for next few days. The Sun has been quiet over past 
24 hours. Isolated low level M class activity possible from regions 
424 and 431. Region 424 is nearing south-west solar limb. Region 
431 is in south-east solar quadrant. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2222 1223
      Darwin               9   22-- -322
      Townsville           5   1222 1222
      Learmonth            5   1222 1223
      Canberra             5   1222 1223
      Hobart               5   1211 2223
      Casey(Ant)          14   33-3 2243
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 AUG : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            88   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              79   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   4323 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Aug    20    Active to minor storm 
13 Aug    25    Active to minor storm 
14 Aug    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 36 was issued on 9 August and 
is current for interval 11-13 August. A gradual trend of increasing 
geomagnetic activity is expected over next two days. Activity 
induced by solar coronal hole high speed wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
13 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
14 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderately degraded interval is expected to 
begin around late 11-12 Aug. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Aug    75

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  60

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Aug    75    near predicted monthly values 
13 Aug    55    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
14 Aug    60    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Initially good HF conditions expected for today. Then 
mild to moderately degraded conditons expected for southern Aus/NZ 
region on 12 Aug. Northern Aus region MUFs expected to remain 
near to 15% above predicted monthly values. Possible mild depressions 
for southern region Aus have been slipped out by 1 day from yesterdays 
forecast as the Earth may have just entered the anticipated coronal 
hole wind stream. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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