[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 August 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Aug             15 Aug             16 Aug
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             140/94
COMMENT: The coronal hole solar stream presently impacting the 
Earth appears to be abating. Solar region 431 has shown rapid 
growth over the past 24 hours and has the chance of producing 
significant flare activity. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 13 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3432 2223
      Darwin               9   2332 2222
      Townsville          11   3431 2122
      Learmonth           10   2322 3233
      Canberra            12   3432 2223
      Hobart               9   2332 2222
      Casey(Ant)          13   3432 2233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 AUG : 
      Townsville          12   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra           124   (Severe storm)
      Hobart              87   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             25   4554 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Aug    15    Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active 
                periods. 
15 Aug    12    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: The coronal hole solar wind stream appears to be abating 
with mostly quiet to unsettled levels expected for the next few 
days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions with slight depressions possible 
at times for the next few days. SWF's possible. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Aug    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 115% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  60

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Aug    75    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
15 Aug    75    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
16 Aug    75    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on 13 August 
and is current for interval 14-16 August (SWFs) . Mostly normal 
conditions with slight depressions possible at times for the 
next few days. SWF's possible. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B2.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 665 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   228000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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