[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 August 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug:  Low-moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3 02/2354UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Aug             05 Aug             06 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             118/70             118/70
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued to decline from 650 to 550km/sec 
over the UT day. Further decline in solar wind speed expected 
next 24 hours. Another coronal hole, an isolated transequatorial 
coronal hole, is now near the centre of the solar disk and the 
Earth is expected to enter the wind stream from this hole on 
aound 06 Aug. The M1 flare was optically correlated with an 1 
normal flare from region 424 in Culgoora H-alpha imagery. Further 
isolated M class activity is possible from 424. The simpler region 
to the north of 424 now appears to be numbered region 425. A 
new region, numbered 427 located at (N04W16) has emerged quickly 
but seems relatively quiet at this stage. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2333 2222
      Darwin               9   2332 2222
      Townsville           8   2332 2122
      Learmonth           11   2333 2233
      Canberra            10   2333 2222
      Hobart              11   2333 3222
      Casey(Ant)          13   3333 3233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 AUG : 
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           41   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            95   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             126   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             21   4443 3344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
05 Aug     6    Quiet 
06 Aug    16    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 3 August and 
is current for interval 6-8 August. 27 day recurrence suggests 
geomagnetic conditions should remain relatively quiet until 06 
Aug when the Earth is expected to enter another coronal hole 
wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Improving HF conditions expected over next two days. 
Increasing chance for shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits. 
Degraded conditions expected after 06 Aug at mid to high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Aug    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  58

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Aug    65    near predicted monthly values 
05 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions expected next two days. A return 
to degraded conditions is expected for southern Aus/NZ region 
after 06 Aug due to another coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
Northern Aus region MUFs expected to remain near predicted monthly 
values. There is an increasing chance for shortwave fadeouts. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+08 (high)
       X-ray background: B3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 742 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   224000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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