[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 August 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 3 08:25:15 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Aug             04 Aug             05 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   118/70             118/70             116/68
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 800 to 650km/sec over 
the UT day. Further decline in solar wind speed expected next 
24 hours, as the Earth leaves the recent coronal hole high speed 
wind stream. Another coronal hole, an isolated transequatorial 
hole, is rotating towards the centre of the solar disk and the 
Earth is expected to enter the wind stream from this hole on 
around 06 or 07 Aug. Solar region 424 is far south-east solar 
quadrant produced several C class events towards the end of the 
UT day. Isolated M class activity is possible from this region. 
The simpler region reported yesterday to the north of 424 is 
apparently considered to be part of region 424. The southern 
spots of 424 are most likely source for flare activity. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 02 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   3333 3343
      Darwin              15   3333 2343
      Townsville          15   3333 2342
      Learmonth           17   3333 2442
      Canberra            16   3333 3343
      Hobart              16   3333 3343
      Casey(Ant)          29   3443 3-64
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 AUG : 
      Townsville          18   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           55   (Unsettled)
      Canberra           141   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             139   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        28
           Planetary             37   5555 5335     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Aug    13    Unsettled to Active 
04 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
05 Aug     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity expected to further decline today, 
as the Earth leaves the recent coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
27 day recurrence suggests geomagnetic conditions should remain 
relatively quiet until 06 Aug when the Earth is expected to enter 
another coronal hole wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Improving HF conditions expected over next few days. 
Increasing chance for shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Aug    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Blanketing sporadic E observed second half of UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  58

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Aug    55    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
04 Aug    65    near predicted monthly values 
05 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to continue to improve in coming 
days for southern Aus/NZ region. Mild deppressions of 10-15% 
possible for southern Aus/NZ region after local dawn. Northern 
Aus region MUFs expected to remain near predicted monthly values. 
There is an increasing chance for shortwave fadeouts. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+08 (high)
       X-ray background: B2.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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