[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 August 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 123/76


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Aug             06 Aug             07 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             135/89
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued to decline from 560 to 480km/sec 
over the UT day. Further decline in solar wind speed expected 
next 24 hours. An isolated transequatorial coronal hole, is now 
passing the centre of the solar disk and the Earth is expected 
to enter the wind stream from this hole on aound 06 Aug. 
No significant flare activity obver past 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2233 1123
      Darwin               8   2232 1234
      Townsville           7   1233 0124
      Learmonth            7   2232 1123
      Canberra             7   1233 0123
      Hobart               7   1233 0123
      Casey(Ant)          11   2432 12-3
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            57   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              80   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15   3433 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Aug     6    Quiet 
06 Aug    16    Unsettled to active 
07 Aug    20    Active to minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 3 August and 
is current for interval 6-8 August. Quiet to unsettled conditions 
expected today, then a gradual increase to active conditions 
expected 06 Aug due to a coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
07 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected for today. Degraded conditions 
expected after 06 Aug at mid to high latitudes. Isolated shortwave 
fadeouts possible. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Aug    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  60

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Aug    55    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions expected today. A return to degraded 
conditions is expected for southern Aus/NZ region after 06 Aug 
due to another coronal hole high speed wind stream. Northern 
Aus region MUFs expected to remain near predicted monthly values. 
Isolated shortwave fadeouts possible. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+08 (high)
       X-ray background: B2.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 632 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:   131000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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