[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/1N    1307UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr: 126/79


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Apr             23 Apr             24 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             145/99
COMMENT: The partail halo CME associated with the M2-flare observed 
on 21 April appears to be primarily northward directed and is 
not expected to be very geoeffective. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 21 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   2444 2333
      Darwin              16   2443 2-33
      Townsville          18   2444 2-33
      Learmonth           20   3444 2343
      Canberra            16   2444 2233
      Hobart              20   2345 3333
      Casey(Ant)          21   3444 3344
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 APR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              50   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16   4442 3324     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
23 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
24 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters indicate another high speed coronal 
hole solar wind stream has impacted the Earth, resulting in active 
and isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. Geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be mostly unsettled to active for the 
next few days due to coronal hole and possible CME effects. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at times over the next 
few days due to anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Apr   106

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15-30% at times during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Apr    90    Enhanced 5-10% to depressed 5-15% at times. 
23 Apr    90    Enhanced 5-10% to depressed 5-15% at times. 
24 Apr    90    Enhanced 5-10% to depressed 5-15% at times. 
COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at times over the next 
few days due to anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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