[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 April 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Apr             22 Apr             23 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             130/84




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2321 3334
      Darwin              11   2321 3334
      Townsville           9   2321 3324
      Learmonth           11   3221 3333
      Canberra             9   2321 3234
      Hobart               9   2331 2233
      Casey(Ant)          11   3333 1223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 APR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra           111   (Major storm)
      Hobart             106   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             18   3330 332-     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Apr    12    Unsettled 
22 Apr    12    Unsettled 
23 Apr    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds have continued to decline with geomagnetic 
conditions expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled over the 
next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Apr    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15-30% at times during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Apr    90    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
22 Apr    90    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
23 Apr    90    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 589 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   127000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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