[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 132/86


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Apr             24 Apr             25 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             145/99
COMMENT: The partial halo CME associated with the M2-flare observed 
on 21 April appears to be primarily northward directed and is 
not expected to be very geoeffective, however, a glancing blow 
is still possible on 23 April. Further CME activity observed 
on 22 April does not appear Earthward directed. 
Type II radio sweep observed at 0716UT on 22 April.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 22 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      18   3334 3344
      Darwin              16   3334 3333
      Townsville          19   3335 3333
      Learmonth           20   3334 4344
      Canberra            21   3335 3344
      Hobart              23   3345 3344
      Casey(Ant)          17   3443 2333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 APR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           11   (Quiet)
      Canberra            50   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              64   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             21   4454 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Apr    20    Unsettled to active with the chance of minor 
                storm periods. 
24 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
25 Apr    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Elevated solar wind speeds continue to result in active 
and isolated minor storm levels. Active and isolated minor storm 
levels are again possible for 23 April due the anticipated effects 
from a glancing CME. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
24 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at times over the next 
few days due to anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Apr   105

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values to
      depressed 15% at times during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15% at times.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Apr    95    Enhanced 5-10% to depressed 5-15% at times. 
24 Apr    85    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
25 Apr   100    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at times over the next 
few days due to anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B2.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 550 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:   174000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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