[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 April 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Apr             16 Apr             17 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind speed now showing an upward trend. The Eart 
is entering the high speed stream from the second arm of the 
coronal hole. Solar wind speed started the day at 450km/sec and 
reached 600km/sec toward end of current UT day. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) was southward 
-10nT 10-16UT probably asscoiated with stream entry. Solar region 
335 in south-east quadrant produced some minor flare activity 
over past 24 hours, other regions quiet. Also, possible return 
of solar region 320 to the east limb near the solar equator. 
On its previous rottaion this region emerged near the centre 
of the solar disk on 24 Mar, produced no flare activity, but 
showed growth as it rotated off_disk on 30 Mar. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2312 3323
      Darwin              11   2322 3333
      Townsville           8   2212 3323
      Learmonth           10   2222 3332
      Canberra            11   2312 4323
      Hobart              11   2312 4323
      Casey(Ant)          14   34-3 3221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 APR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   3322 3222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Apr    16    Unsettled to Active.
16 Apr    20    Mostly active. Minor storm periods possible. 
17 Apr    18    Mostly active. Minor storm periods possible. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 14 April and 
is current for interval 15-17 April. Increased activity expected 
next few days due to entry into high speed wind stream from second 
arm of solar coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
16 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
17 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected next few days at mid to 
high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Apr    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Apr    80    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
16 Apr    60    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
17 Apr    60    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 14 April 
and is current for interval 16-17 April. HF conditions expected 
to be initially normal today. Mild to moderate depressions possible 
after local dawn southern region Aus/NZ on days 2 and 3. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 500 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    97300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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