[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 April 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Apr             15 Apr             16 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              90/34
COMMENT: Solar wind speed now currently 450km/sec. A further 
decline is expected, then increasing again around 15-16 Apr due 
to second arm of a coronal hole. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 13 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2222 3211
      Darwin               7   2222 2222
      Townsville           8   3222 3211
      Learmonth            7   2222 3111
      Canberra             8   2223 3111
      Hobart               7   2223 2111
      Casey(Ant)          13   3442 2211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 APR : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            80   (Active)
      Hobart              69   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              7   3222 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Apr    19    Unsettled to active 
16 Apr    20    Active 
COMMENT: A return to active levels on 51/16 Apr is expected due 
anticipated entry is high speed wind stream from second arm of 
solar coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
16 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions expected for today, then deteriorating 
as the Earth is expected to enter the second arm of the coronal 
hole that caused recent mild/moderate degradation. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Apr    83

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Apr    80    near predicted monthly values 
15 Apr    65    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
16 Apr    60    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be normal today. Mild to moderate 
depressions possible after local dawn southern region Aus/NZ 
after 15 Apr. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.7E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 591 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   124000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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