[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 April 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Apr             14 Apr             15 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48              95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind further declined today, now at 580km/sec. 
It appears we are now between the arms of the U shopaed coronal 
hole. However, the second arm of the coronal hole is now at solar 
central meridian and an increase in solar wind speed is expected 
to begen on 15/16 Apr. Some new solar regions may be appearing 
toward the solar south-east limb. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   3322 3211
      Darwin              13   34-2 3223
      Townsville           7   2212 3211
      Learmonth            8   3222 3210
      Canberra             7   2222 3210
      Hobart               8   3222 3212
      Casey(Ant)          15   44-3 3211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 APR : 
      Townsville          21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth           38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            97   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             103   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             14   3323 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Apr    14    Unsettled 
14 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Apr    19    active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been less than expected probably 
due to the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
being neutral to mildly northward. A northward IMF reduces geoeffectiveness.
Conditions are now expected to be mostly unsettled over next two days with, 
a return to active levels on day 3 of the forecast due anticipated entry 
into high speed wind stream from second arm of solar coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions now expected for about two days, 
then deteriorating as the Earth is expected to enter the second 
arm of the coronal hole that caused recent mild/moderate degradation. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Apr    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Apr    80    near predicted monthly values 
14 Apr    80    near predicted monthly values 
15 Apr    65    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: Some depressions were observed at Hobart and Christchurch 
after local dawn, but not as widespread as forecast. HF conditions 
are now expected to improve for next two days. A second period 
of degraded conditions is expected 15/16 Apr due to high speed 
wind stream from second arm of U shaped coronal hole. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.8E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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